Has Everyone Forgotten About New Jersey's AHL Affiliate?

So the big stink this time around Draft wise is who is New Jersey going to pick for their first round. Should they get a quick, flexible forward for DeBoer to change around to be a catalyst for whichever line he ends up on? Should the get a big, powerful defenseman to protect whatever goaltender ends up in the pipes next year? Should they go the other route, and snag a smaller, Brian Rafalski-type defensman to creep around the rink and make Lidstrom-esque style stoppages without having a huge presence on the ice? Or, as for some reason everyone on facebook thinks, should they draft a goaltender?

Now, I don't want to be a GM here, but I think it's pretty self explanatory as to why New Jersey should draft anything but a goaltender. Bottom line is, there are two things to keep in mind:

1) Jersey has to draft someone eventually, and it honestly doesn't matter if they're first round or not (see Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk).

2) Marty may not retire, Moose probably has some left in him if he resigns, AND there are two very able bodied Goaltending affiliates for Jersey.

 First and foremost, there is the AHL goalie Keith Kinkaid. He's 6'3" and 180 lbs, a big body that can move extremely quickly across the crease. He's 22, so not a wet-behind-the-ears 18 year old, but has some professional experience. And, considering Brodeur will more than likely stick around (maybe not as the goalie coach) but Kinkaid will definitely get the teachings of the greatest goaltender in NHL history. He has kind of a wild, Tim Thomas style of goaltending, so he's not a boring double dropper, but a pad stacker. He's been the MVP of two leagues and a Robertson Cup champion, as well as a Ken Dryden top ECAC goaltender. Plus his nickname is Kinky. That just the best.

Then there is Scott Wedgewood, currently playing for the CHL, drafted 3rd overall by New Jersey. He's 6'1" and 190 lbs, smaller and thicker than Kinkaid, and makes slower and more powerful saves, but very precisely. According to Hockey's future, he's a Journeyman goaltender at 7.5 out of 10. 

"Players not quite good enough to play on the top line or pairing on a regular basis, but still possessing enough talent to contribute offensively, defend with some authority, or competently play the goaltender's position for long stretches."

 So, bottom line, New Jersey does not need another draft pick wasted on a goaltender that will be stuck in the AHL or lower to wait for Martin Brodeur to retire. Once he leaves, they'll have to throw someone in the open spot anyway, and the process of building goaltending will begin all over again.

And seriously, his nickname is Kinky.

Do Goalies have to keep with the trend of Bigger and Badder in today's NHL setting?

It's been an avenue of speculation for years, since the 1980s of small, fast players seems to be coming quickly to an end. Especially with the draft on its way, and every radio, talk show, podcast, NHL station pondering, does an organization need a giant in between the pipes to ensure victory?

Well, if the facts are assembled, goalies in the NHL don't really deviate from 74 inches (or 6'2") so it can be hard to imagine. Only one goalie under 6" is in the top 10 of the NHL and at 5'11" that man is Tim Thomas. Only two others break the top 30 of wins and they are also slightly away from 6" at 5'11"; Jaroslav Halak and Jose Theodore. 

With the top goalie for the regular 2012 season being an enormous 6'5" it's no wonder GMs and Coaches yearn for a tall, thick goaltender between the pipes. But, what happens when you bring statistics into the game? Does it level the playing field for shorter, less physically intimidating goaltenders? Or, does it just reenforce what experts have been saying for the last 15 years? 

When data is gathered, taking into account the top 60 goaltenders in the NHL, and ranking them by their Wins divided by their Games Played (so W/Gp) you get a pretty even spread of guys from 5'10" to 6'6". It seems like a stretch, but out of 60 people, a deviation of only about 1 and a half inch on average isn't too shabby. Then, cut that list in half, and have your "top 30 goalies" and your "bottom 30 goalies". That way, we can test if height really does matter, or, if it's just a speculation with no math to back it up. 

I converted height to inches, just for the sake of testing. The top 30 goalies averaged 73.8 inches, or about 6'1.8" and the bottom goalies were around 73.6 inches, or around 6'1.6". On paper there is a difference, but is that .2 of an inch significant enough to say that goalies need to be taller in order to perform better?

I ran the data in two separate lists through a 2-sample T-test. This uses the mean, standard deviation and degrees of freedom to determine if goalies over 6" are better at their job. The data was as follows:

 

where t = .475

and p = .318

Now, I won't bore you with tedious details, but interpreting this basically means that goalies DO perform better when they are above the height 6". Now, as anyone who knows anything about statistics will know, there are a number of things wrong that we can't COMPLETELY trust these results. 

For one, I only used the top 60 goaltenders in the NHL. So the results can only account for the goaltenders in this league. Secondly, it's obvious this belief has been held in the NHL for a very long time, therefore the average height of 6'2" says something. Organizations aren't thinking just now that they need to draft bigger goaltenders. It's been happening for a while. Thirdly, to really hit a point home, the data for all goaltenders drafted in 2012 would have to be used in comparison to the NHL goaltenders.

However, for now, it seems as if the bigger the goalie, the more the team wins.